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Chapter 4: The Seeds of Change

  Yelena had been up since the early hours, preparing for the emergency meeting that had jolted her awake to confront the first task of her term. It was now 7:38 AM. Every director from the security agencies was present in the twenty-two-meter-long briefing room, seated rigidly, eyes fixed on her as if primed to scrutinize her every word.

  She glanced at each person in the room—faces both strange and familiar—and found not a single friendly expression directed her way. It was a silent wall of non-recognition from the elite; none dared trust a youth to shoulder a system painstakingly built over twenty years.

  She closed her eyes briefly, listening to the voiceless whispers. They drifted from unspoken doubts and behind-closed-doors murmurs. But she knew the truth: those seated here, whether bowing in courtesy or remaining mute, were all inwardly demanding: "Why her?" and "Who put her up there?"

  Naturally, she understood the source of it. A system accustomed to the predictable decisions of seasoned veterans now had to restart from zero, leading many to view Yelena with disdain. Yet, this was not her most daunting trial. Just as Vostrikov had ascended through sheer talent, she saw no reason to falter before the rest.

  She opened her eyes. The representatives of the government agencies were all present. She spoke:

  "Let us begin..." The murmurs died out instantly, leaving the floor entirely to Yelena's voice. "Eight hours ago, an unidentified military group attacked our international exclusion zones in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. Records from those neutralized indicate the use of standard-issue Chinese military equipment..."

  Yelena paused, letting her words sink in.

  "...Six hours ago, eighteen Chinese Type-098 nuclear submarines were detected moving in formation. Their radius is less than 120 nautical miles (222.24 km) from the coast of Kamchatka. Simultaneously, RISKBASE(1) satellites recorded increased 'troop concentration' activities in Inner Mongolia. While unverified, there were several reports during the night of unidentified vessels in the vicinity of the Arctic Ocean..."

  She glanced toward the Director of the General Institute for Military Strategy – Defense (NMSG), asking with calm poise:

  "Has the NMSG reacted to these anomalies yet?"

  The NMSG Director raised his hand, frowning. "Orders from Command have been dispatched to the fleets to enter a state of high alert and return to port for preparation..."

  He trailed off, glancing at the Director of the Media Emergency Response and Coordination Yard (MERCY)(2), before continuing boldly:

  "...It is too early for a definitive conclusion, but based on the system's AI analysis, there is a 63% probability of an attack from Beijing; this is a 25% increase from the 38% recorded at the end of Q4 last year. We believe this is a deterrent maneuver from China to assert dominance."

  "And the MERCY Director? What is the situation on the internet?"

  The MERCY Director nodded. He took a remote and turned on the TV at the far end of the room, presenting a series of slides. His voice, though tinged with anxiety, remained steady.

  "On Weibo and Douyin, 'leaked' clips of Chinese soldiers moving near the Russian border have surfaced. Though unverified, they are spreading with extreme speed... Our own platforms are no better; military bloggers have seized the news and are publishing analyses predicting a surprise attack on Federal territory..."

  The MERCY Director—a tall man with graying hair and a voice as clear as an alarm bell—pulled up a new slide.

  "A total of 127 original posts from high-engagement accounts appeared within just three hours. Of these, 43 originate from simulated media networks, showing signs of being generated by automated AI tools. The first original post likely originated from a Kazakhstan IP but was routed through a relay server in the Philippines. Subsequent posts utilized Vietnamese, Japanese, and English to create a multi-language amplification effect..."

  He paused to state his professional opinion:

  "This campaign is clearly not spontaneous. There are signs of a coordinated information warfare operation, using the same media formula seen during the 2008 Georgia crisis or the 2014 Ukraine conflict, but with far greater sophistication."

  The room fell silent for several seconds. Yelena's voice suddenly rang out, carrying the tempered strength of hot steel, clear and resolute:

  "I do not need a situation report; I need a solution, right here, right now..."

  The agency heads stared at her in silence, slightly taken aback by her timely grit.

  "First, MERCY is to immediately activate the 'fake news poisoning' protocol. Control misleading content and coordinate with the CIP (Center for Public Literacy and Media) to adjust algorithms to distract public opinion. If necessary, temporarily freeze accounts capable of spreading misinformation and manipulate emotional steering."

  "Wait..." The MERCY Director raised a hand in protest, sweat trickling down his cheek. "If we do that, we will face a backlash from certain foreign press outlets... and this is not the right time to issue reassurances... I advise we clarify the situation if we wish to avoid a diplomatic disaster."

  Yelena did not let him finish. She slammed her hand on the table, her eyes piercing him.

  "Are you suggesting that if the enemy spreads fake news to cause panic, we should sit idly by and wait for the Western press to verify it?"

  The room went still, letting Yelena continue her point with unwavering conviction.

  "We will take no military action—I agree with you halfway—however, special forces will be deployed to deal with the 'terrorist' issue first. But the information network must be sealed tight and the distribution points neutralized... I am not asking for an internet blackout, but a airtight seal to ensure nothing leaks to the civilian population."

  The MERCY Director remained silent. It was the only way to save face.

  The atmosphere in the room grew rigid. Even those accustomed to major operations had to look at Yelena with new eyes. Their attitude shifted to one of wariness toward the person once dismissed as an "inexperienced young girl"—at least, not today.

  Another voice spoke up, deep and rasping. It belonged to the Director of the Strategic Data Security Force (SDSF)(3).

  "Since this is a deliberate information war, I propose we trace the source of the entire distribution campaign. With SDSF authority, we can deploy a digital counter-model, launching simulated counter-strikes to cut the flow, reverse public opinion, and simultaneously signal the attackers that we are not passive."

  Stolen from Royal Road, this story should be reported if encountered on Amazon.

  Yelena gave a slight nod, gesturing for him to continue.

  "I need at least 12 hours to map the suspects and 6 hours for an online counter-offensive. But I require NSC authorization to bypass security standards, as this data demands deep access into civilian telecommunications systems."

  Vostrikov nodded, following Yelena in a gravelly tone. "We need not declare an emergency yet, but temporary rights will be granted for the situation. If the spread of negative emotion exceeds the threshold, direct intervention will be required to prevent chaos; authorize the lockdown of data centers in border regions."

  Yelena shifted her gaze to the left of the room, where the representative of the General Institute for Strategic Solutions (GISS)(4) sat.

  "GISS, what do you see in this development?"

  The GISS Director, a cold man with eyes as sharp as a psychological scalpel, answered without hesitation:

  "We warned of this scenario eighteen months ago. Beijing will not strike frontally. Their primary goal is to bait Russia into launching at the wrong time. Essentially, this is a 'short-term simulated war exercise,' forcing us to overreact and thus face international isolation. What they need is not a military victory, but a victory of perception."

  He paused, looking directly at Yelena:

  "To win, we must not let them drag us into a battle they have prepared. We propose initiating a 'Dialogue Remodeling'—using diplomacy as a mask to delay contact while GISS and BIDATA silently gather evidence for a legitimate counter-blow."

  Yelena nodded, but did not rush to a conclusion.

  She interlaced her fingers, carefully observing the veterans of the elite.

  "I have invited representatives from PTEC(5), SAC(6), and TASC(7) to monitor this session remotely. Those three agencies will have three hours to critique the overall action plan."

  A few people began to whisper, clearly unaccustomed to being publicly critiqued by agencies outside the security inner circle, but Yelena pressed on, her voice as firm as a sentence:

  "No one acts independently without passing through three layers of critique: strategic, technical, and policy. This situation could lead to total war, and I will not allow a single isolated decision to drag the entire nation into the abyss."

  A minute of silence reigned.

  Then Yelena concluded in a voice that did not tremble, nor force, yet none dared challenge:

  "Be ready for two options. If the opponent withdraws: we win on positioning. If the opponent advances: we are ready. For now, I need the list of diplomatic delegations going to Beijing next week, and an analysis of what we should say... when sitting across from a man who has just arrayed his troops at our front door."

  Vostrikov had heard enough and nodded in satisfaction. He spoke, handing over a folder prepared by Melnikov, who was currently at the Chinese Embassy.

  Yelena opened it to read, the tension in the room easing as her face relaxed. The first name to catch her eye was: First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Kazimir Roboknov.

  *****

  Sheremetyevo International Airport

  11:22 AM (Moscow Time)

  The sun beat down on Kazimir's exhausted face. His hand gripped the suitcase he had been meticulously organizing on the plane; his eyelids felt ready to collapse, and his muscles refused to move another centimeter. But none of that mattered. There were things more vital than the fatigue of a nine-hour flight spent listening to every outgoing report.

  He had grasped the basic situation. If judged by severity, this was the worst case he could imagine for ruining diplomatic relations. Such a cluster of coincidences was an unacceptable red-alert warning from Beijing.

  "Ikar, call the Kremlin. Tell them I want to see the President immediately." His face remained expressionless, but his tone was intensely anxious.

  Ikar followed Kazimir's order, pulling out his phone. Simultaneously, he was reminded to keep up the pace.

  "Ensure they have restructured the schedule for us from scratch. I will not accept the omission of a single detail, understood?"

  "Understood, Mr. Deputy Minister..."

  Kazimir continued out of the airport, the gazes of the security personnel making him slightly uncomfortable. The mere fact that China had suddenly deployed an entire fleet of nuclear submarines had already cost immense effort to manage a diplomatic crisis that threatened to spiral out of control.

  Just what is Beijing trying to do? He thought, quickening his pace toward the waiting Ministry of Foreign Affairs vehicle.

  Kazimir walked straight to the car and, without a word, climbed in and urged the driver: "Straight to the Kremlin. Do not waste my time."

  "Yes, sir."

  The car left the airport, speeding past Sheremetevskoe Boulevard before merging onto Leningradskoye Shosse, joining the rush of traffic toward central Moscow.

  Kazimir sat upright in the car, staring out the window, but his mind was submerged in thought, envisioning countless scenarios and questions: If Beijing does not withdraw, is Russia ready? If they take a step back, what is our next move? And if the upcoming meeting fails, is war the only consequence?

  He turned to Ikar, who was still reviewing a real-time encrypted schedule.

  "Is there anyone on the meeting list who shouldn't be there?" Kazimir asked, tilting his head.

  Ikar looked at the screen, frowning slightly. "There is one: Liu Qiyang, Deputy Director of the Chinese Foreign Affairs Bureau. He was the one who contacted Huawei during the Baltic scandal. He should not be at the main negotiating table."

  Kazimir nodded.

  "Then remove him. I'll handle the rest."

  The car continued down Leningradsky Avenue, heading toward the MKAD and then merging into the Third Ring Road. Every street passed as if swept away by the wind.

  Kazimir recalled the recording of the morning meeting; the words of the new President remained clear: "If the opponent withdraws: we win on positioning. If they advance: we are ready."

  He was not a man of sentiment, nor was he the type of politician to simply wait. Kazimir was a man who understood exactly how the world functioned around power, and he would let nothing become a surprise.

  "Besides Liu Qiyang, is there anyone else?"

  Ikar scrolled with his finger for a few seconds, his voice slow and clear on every name:

  "There is Sun Tiankai and Chen Yusheng. Both are prominent figures in Beijing politics, with extensive records negotiating with the remnants of the EU."

  "France and Germany have more problems to solve than confronting China, so they chose compromise to settle the conflicts between Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic... I do not recognize that as a success for Beijing."

  "But Europe is falling into Beijing's hands, while we only have Belarus, Central Asia, and a portion of Southeast Asia... What advantage do you think we have over them, sir?"

  Ikar turned to look at Kazimir, his hand pausing as he waited for an answer.

  "We have the advantage in terms of defense... I could list it right here, but such a comparison is lopsided. Attacking us brings no benefit to China, unless..."

  "Unless?" Ikar repeated, puzzled by Kazimir's current stance.

  "Unless they decide to gamble everything on a conflict. Even if they have the advantage in international support, it does not guarantee Beijing's success... This is a risk with a failure probability sitting at 60% if we consider that the United States would decide to intervene militarily to contain China. That probability increases if their partners decide not to support a conflict, just as they did with us..."

  Kazimir spoke at length, analyzing for Ikar why the current situation did not favor China if they were to open a conflict now. However, even Kazimir did not rule out another case.

  "...Even so, we cannot forget another factor... the recovery between the U.S. and its states. Information from Derral indicates the situation is favoring the federal government. Although they lost Washington and Oregon, and California is tightening ties with Beijing—effectively neutralizing the West Coast—the recovery of America is an undeniable prospect. Their leaders have seen it and likely view it as a threat to their ambitions."

  Ikar listened to every word, not entirely convinced, but understanding the logic. He re-checked relevant information, scrolling to a section of the report that had just arrived.

  It was a military report, listing upcoming operations to retake the international exclusion zones. He scrolled through the team info and, sensing its utility, handed it to Kazimir.

  "Sir, this is information on the 'Spetsnaz' teams deployed to the Chinese border."

  Kazimir took the phone, reading every line carefully. These special forces were deployed with the mission of retaking areas seized by terrorists over the past several hours. Whether or not Chinese soldiers were present remained unclear, but it was a point that required absolute attention.

  He continued to frown until he read a specific team mention, which made him give a dry laugh as he rubbed his chin.

  "Well, we have an acquaintance here... Voron... Solomon... The Foreign Minister's adopted son..."

  "Is it Solomon? Did the Foreign Minister react?"

  Kazimir shrugged. "I don't know. We don't need to concern ourselves with family relations. Move on... Next is the information on our delegation."

  Ikar nodded and coughed a few times. He was about to begin his presentation when a tremor suddenly occurred. Brief, but enough to be felt by the senses. It was no longer a stranger; such tremors from continuous subsidence were common, though this time there was a change in the Richter intensity.

  "Stronger than last time, wasn't it?" Kazimir looked at Ikar.

  He nodded in return. "Yes, it seems stronger..."

  "Continue. We are wasting time. Time is running out."

  Footnotes:

  RISKBASE – Global Risk Analysis and Early Warning System: Russia's global risk warning system, analyzing data from 145 countries to forecast crises.

  MERCY – Media Emergency Response and Coordination Yard: Agency for strategic media coordination – counter-information warfare – public opinion stabilization.

  SDSF – Strategic Data Security Force: Responsible for government data security, cyber counter-attacks, and cyber warfare.

  GISS – General Institute for Strategic Solutions: Tasked with strategic analysis, domestic/foreign intelligence, and multi-tier warnings.

  PTEC – Policy and Technical Equilibrium Committee: A technocratic review body that audits policies before issuance to ensure no decision exceeds system control limits.

  SAC – Systemic Analysis Center: Agency for Big Data processing, legal/policy appraisal, and macro-risk warning.

  TASC – Technocratic Advisory Strategic Council: High-level policy review group, acting as an "ethical council" for anomalous scenarios.

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